Forecasting Portugal’s Online Poker Market: Part 2 Forecasting Portugal’s Online Poker Market: Part 2
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Key Takeaways
  • The Portuguese market is comparable to New Jersey in terms of player numbers, but revenues will be substantially lower.
  • The tax system and barriers to entry for small operators suggest a market like Spain, with PokerStars dominant and one or two other big name operators taking the bulk of the remaining market.
  • Casino offerings will ensure that the top 30% tax rate applies to poker revenues so profits will be very slim.

The first part of the forecast identified some of the factors in the new Portuguese legislation that could have a significant impact on the market dynamics of the newly regulated gaming market.

In particular, the tiered gaming tax for online poker and casino games may be the principal determinant of the number of operators the market can support.

The key features of the tax described in Article 83 of the new law are:

  • A 15% tax on operators with a gross income of €5 million or less.
  • A 30% tax on gross income over €10 million.
  • The tax rate on income earned above €5 million increases proportionally from 15% to 30%.

In consequence small operators face high marginal rates of tax if they grow to revenues over €5 million.

The capacity of the market to generate revenues will be affected by several factors, including propensity to gamble and the size of the gray market.