You walk up to the open seat, look around the table and only recognize a couple of the faces. Then you are told you MUST play the first hand that is dealt. That is how I usually feel when approaching the Arlington Million. 4 of this year’s 13 scheduled starters have raced almost exclusively overseas and there is little handicapping information readily available to the average horseplayer.
So where do we begin in handicapping these shippers? First thing is that we have to assume that they all have the talent to make an impact on this Grade 1 turf event. These Euro-horses run mainly on the grass and their connections are taking the time and expense to ship here. All have graded stakes experience over there. These aren’t fish filling out the table giving you an easy spot. These are seasoned nosebleed stakes veterans.
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Take the #13, Deauville, for example. Racing in Great Britain and Ireland, he hadn’t won a European race since July 2015. In his last European race, a Grade 1 affair, he finished 11th, a full 21 lengths behind the leader. Then he ships over for his first try in the US in The Grade 1 Belmont Derby where he wins by a neck at 6-1 odds. Talk about a tough spot. And there are 3 more Euro-shippers just like him ready to snag the winners share of Arlington’s $1,000,000 purse as well as the “win and you’re in” guaranteed spot in the Breeder’s Cup Turf this November.
For the horses who haven’t raced in North America, all we can see on their running lines are the race specifications and the horses’ finishing position. But if you dig a little deeper into the trip notes (I prefer the Brisnet pp’s, their trip notes are awesome) there is enough information to get a general feel for their running styles. #8, Decorated Knight, shows several “in last pair” comments which shows him to be a closer. #9 Mondialiste has two North American races and more comments that show he is a closer. #12, Tryster will likely be the race favorite and also is a stalker/closer type while the aforementioned Deauville looks to run up close.
We can’t just hand over the awards to our foreign counterparts. Next step is to handicap our US contenders. Last year’s champ, The Pizza Man, is back. This Midwest Thoroughbreds horse was the first Illinois bred to capture the local prize and he will be looking to be the first repeat winner in Million history. He will be joined by other contenders World Approval, an up close type, Wake Forest who will look to come from far back, and Take The Stand, who will look to be forwardly placed.
With the running styles doped out, it’s important to note that there have been 103 2-turn turf routes at AP this year, and only 14% have been won in wire to wire fashion. However, in the past week, 3 of 11 of these races have been won on the front end. This bit of track bias makes me favor a stalker type or deep closer, especially if the longshot front runners Dubai Sky and Kasaqui can do their part in pushing Take The Stand and ensuring an honest pace. If Take The Stand gets loose on the lead and can cut fractions around 48.0 and 1:13 he may overcome the bias and wire the field.
The Arlington Million shapes up to be a very nice betting race with the post time favorite likely to be 3-1 or better. My advice is to spread it around a little bit. With so many competent closers in this race, trip is going to be key. Front running Take The Stand is going to go for the lead and stay out of road trouble, and if he can overcome his 4 month layoff he will be in contention in the end with Mondialiste, Wake Forest and World Approval. I will use these 4 horses in an exacta box and hope for the best.
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