California Chrome is a universally admired thoroughbred that comes around once in a generation. People want to see him race, they even want to see him work out, and they want to root for him. Few competitors ever reach this level of adulation. The few that come to mind are the likes of Secretariat, Big Brown, or in poker, Doyle Brunson. All of this adulation is great, but what really matters happens when the gates open in this Saturday’s $1,000,000 TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar.
Chrome and his $12.6 million bankroll headline a field of 9 in the 1-1/4 mile Breeder’s Cup “win and you’re in” affair and will have to overcome the inside post to reach the winner’s circle for a 5th consecutive race.
Make legal online horse racing wagers in the US at BetAmerica.com
The rail draw is worrisome for a couple of reasons. Trainer Art Sherman and jockey Victor Espinoza concur that the 5yr old son of Lucky Pulpit likes to run up front or up close, and on the outside. Chrome does not like horses running outside of him.
Then there may be a little track bias to overcome. According the Equibase Track Bias stats, there have been 35 dirt route races at Del Mar, with only 3% of winners running on the rail. That seems like a significant bia to me, and 35 races is a significant sample size. So the question becomes, is it worth the 8-5 morning line odds to take a shot at California Chrome?
The next top contender in the race is Beholder, with Gary Stevens aboard, breaking from the 7 post at a 5-2 morning line. Beholder is a three time Eclipse Award winning mare and the only female Pacific Classic champ, trained by the always dangerous Richard Mandella. Beholder will have to prove that the loss in her last race was the exception and her previous 8 straight wins are the rule.
Then there is Dortmund, one of two Bob Baffert trainees. An interesting fact about this 4yr old is that he has only been beaten by Kentucky Derby champions American Pharoah, and California Chrome. Chrome recently beat Dortmund in this year’s Grade 2 San Diego Handicap.
The top three choices in this race are all up close types who like to be on or near the lead while the rest of the field is filled out by a rogue’s gallery of slow speed horses and closers with total career earnings of $6,666,519. That’s my kind of rogue’s gallery!
The way that this race will unfold depends on what California Chrome does from the rail. Since Chrome, Dortmund, and Beholder all run with the same style, jockeys Gary Stevens and Dortmund’s Rafael Bejarano will have their heads turned to the left at the break to see what Chrome does. They would love to see Chrome get boxed in or be forced to use his speed to get to the front. Maybe a fake speed horse like War Story will try to push the pace and further hinder Chrome’s options. Add in the track bias and that leaves me to use Beholder and Dortmund on top of the rest of the field, hoping that one of the longshots can pick up the pieces after 2 of the top 3 battle for position.
My bets for the race will be:
$2 exacta wheel 7 with all
$2 exacta wheel 9 with all
$1 trifecta 7,9/7,9/all
Sorry Chrome, if you know my history, you know I am always trying to beat the favorite.
Make legal online horse racing wagers in the US at BetAmerica.com
