It’s the unofficial end of summer. Not because it’s Labor Day weekend, but because Saratoga’s racing season is coming to a close. The Spa will celebrate closing weekend with the running of the $600,000 G1 Woodward Stakes at 1-1/8 miles on Saturday.
Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin will send out Frosted, winner of the Whitney Handicap, to add to his Saratoga earnings as he leads the expected field of 9 to the post. Todd Pletcher will look to win back to back Woodwards with Whitney runner-up Comfort. They will be joined by a host of graded stakes veterans.
Make legal online horse racing wagers in the US at BetAmerica.com
The way that they have been running around 2 turns at Saratoga, post position and running style will influence the chances of anyone finishing ahead of Frosted. Saratoga 2 turn dirt races have been dominated by wire-to-wire winners with front runners cashing the big check at a 30% clip. Inside post horses have even more help, as we saw in Arrogate’s romp from the rail in last week’s Travers. I am a little baffled that I haven’t read anything about the bias at Saratoga, even after a front running horse breaking from post #1 making his graded stakes debut wins the Travers by a dozen lengths, setting a stakes and track record, while posting the highest Brisnet speed figure EVER (Brisnet figures only go back to 1990).
Here is how I see the Woodward shaping up. Samraat will not get the easy lead and slow fractions he enjoyed in the G2 Suburban where he battled gamely for 2nd to a stalking Effinex. Legitimate speedster Bradester will press the pace early hoping to ride the bias as far as his speed will take him. Then they will all look to see what jockey Joel Rosario and Frosted feel like doing.
Frosted’s ability to run from anywhere is a great advantage when there is a track bias. Breaking from post #3, I propose that Frosted will run the same race as he did in the Whitney where he will get the lead by the end of the first turn and never look back. I have been studying the 2 turn route races at Saratoga and the bias has not changed. The stretch runs have looked like boat races where positions throughout the field do not change much.
Frosted is the best horse and will go off at odds of less than even money. If you have been reading this column, one thing you know is that I am always searching for a price, so my job in the Woodward is to beat Frosted. Playing to the track bias I have to look for the speed to hold where it shouldn’t and that leads me to the front running Bradester. This son of Lion Heart has wired the field in his past three races, including the G2 Monmouth Cup and the G1 Stephen Foster. Bradester will break from post #4 with New Jersey’s finest, Joe Bravo, up. My biggest concern with betting Bradester will be his odds. People tend to over bet horses with “a lot of 1’s” in the past performance lines and he has a lot of them. If he is below 9-2, I will look elsewhere.
If Frosted and Bradester both collapse, my next choice is Shaman Ghost. This James Jerkens trainee sat behind brutally slow fractions while off the rail in the Suburban Handicap. If Shaman Ghost can use his rail post to stay up close, and the aforementioned duo collapse, he may have a chance. Stranger things have happened. Just ask Secretariat who lost to Prove Out in the 1973 Woodward.
Make legal online horse racing wagers in the US at BetAmerica.com
