The Graveyard of Favorites Strikes Again as Shaman Ghost Wins the Woodward

Shaman Ghost made an abrupt stretch move to out-duel 3 challengers in Saturday’s $600,000 G1 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga. The move bested trainer Kiaran McLaughlin’s duo of Frosted and Mubtaahij who tried in vain to grind him down on either side. Shaman Ghost’s well-timed advance returned $20.00, $8.50 and $3.10, while Mubtaahij just missed and returned $6.20 and $2.80, Frosted disappointed at odds of 2-5 and salvaged $2.10 for the show.
Benefiting from an awkward break by the heavily favored Frosted, Shaman Ghost ran a perfect first 3/4’s of a mile and a gutsy final 3/8’s.

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The James Jerkens trainee sat on the inside behind the speed of Bradester, whose only early challengers were longshots Breaking Lucky and Samraat. The field settled mostly unchanged throughout the backside as the eventual winner bided his time following modest fractions of 24.38 and 48.43. Then the real race started.

Mid way around the final turn, Shaman Ghost’s rider, Javier Castellano, sensed that the front running duo was prime to be passed and edged off of the rail for a clear path. Leader Bradester blew the turn and drifted about 5 paths off the rail. He carried several rivals, including Frosted and Shaman Ghost, a lot wider than they would have hoped. As this was unfolding, Mubtaahij ran on in the 2-path from near the back of the pack, saving ground while closing on the leaders.

Through mid-stretch, wide running Frosted kept grinding forward in the middle of the track but began drifting back towards the inside. To avoid being squeezed, Castellano made the winning move by ducking Shaman Ghost sharply closer to the inside. Though Frosted still looked to be grinding towards a victory as Shaman Ghost and Mubtaahij battled to his inside, his poor break from the gate and poor track position in the stretch were too much for Frosted to overcome. Frosted was never quite able to get past the lead duo and Shaman Ghost put his head in front at the wire to gain his first G1 win.

Chalk up another one for the track bias at Saratoga, a.k.a. The Graveyard of Favorites.

Though this weekend marks the end of another great season in upstate New York, I am very excited for the betting opportunities that Saratoga’s track bias may provide. As The Spa’s summer stock disperses to other tracks I will be looking for route horses whose styles didn’t fit well with the bias. I’ll also have an eye out for horses whose racing positions and racing luck put them in inopportune spots versus the “inside and up close” advantage in 2 turn races. On the other side of the coin, I will be looking to beat horses whose performances were enhanced by the track bias, specifically front runners who couldn’t carry their speed in spite of the bias (that means you Bradester!).

Having watched all of the 2-turn route graded stakes races at Saratoga, I am excited to see where many of the contenders land on Breeder’s Cup day. I will have my wallet ready.

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