The $600,000 G3 Kentucky Turf Cup is the signature race at Kentucky Downs and will be contested at a mile and a half on Saturday. Kentucky Downs is the site of a magnificent European-style turf course with ebbs and flows in terms of both the turns and the rolling landscape.
Morning line favorite Da Big Hoss will look to repeat his winning 2015 performance in a field of 9 at this turf mecca. Trained by Mike Maker and ridden by Florent Geroux, this son of Lemon Drop Kid is on a 3 graded stake win streak. All of the angles point to a repeat. His main rival is stable mate Greengrassofyoming, a $62,500 claim this year, who rewarded his connections with a win in the G3 Stars and Stripes at Arlington Park.
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Usually the first week of a meet presents some challenges in handicapping, but the folks at Kentucky Downs do an incredible job of presenting their track bias and post position information more clearly than anyone in the business. They update the information after every day’s card. Here is a quote pulled directly from their website regarding 1-turn races (not enough data for 2-turn races):
“For the most part, there is a recurring theme showing winners on firm ground having good early speed and coming, in many instances, from post positions in the inner half of the gate. The corollary is that on softer ground, early speed is not as effective, and outside posts produce a higher percentage of winners.”
This is tremendous information when handicapping a track with an unconventional layout.
With this information in hand, here is how I see the race taking shape: In these marathon turf races there is always a tendency to favor the horses who will close from the weeds, and this race is no exception. Da Big Hoss won the Belmont Gold Cup coming from far back and moving 6-7 wide on the turn, and he did it rather easily He made the same wide move to win the G3 American St. Leger, this time coming from mid-pack. If this race is going to be won coming from far back, Da Big Hoss looks tons the best and I will have to toss the other late runners like Greengrassofyoming, Rum Tum Tugger, et al.
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If I can’t bet the prohibitive favorite and I can’t bet anyone to out close Hoss, that leaves me with only the speed and the stalkers. With a decisive lack of speed in this race I need someone to steal it on the front end.
Seve’s Road might look like a threat, but according to DRF Formulator Facts, trainer Phil D’Amato is 0 for 24 in the past 5 years in Kentucky so I’ll have to pass. Neil Drysdale trainee Powerfoot ran mid-pack at 50-1 odds in the Del Mar Handicap, saved all the ground and had no response. No thanks.
My pick to steal this race is Bullard’s Alley (10-1). Breaking from the favorable #2 spot, this son of Flower Alley looked awesome 3 races back winning the G3 Louisville Handicap while stalking a dawdling pace 3 wide around all 3 turns. His last two have not been up to par including a loss to Greengrassofyoming in the Stars and Stripes. I will hope that his return to the bluegrass state rekindles his interest and he can run back to his Churchill Downs form. If jockey Marcelino Pedroza can keep him close early, Bullard’s Alley is my shot at beating the closers (sorry Hoss!).
