Tepin, the “*Queen of the Turf*”, will take on the boys again in the $1,000,000 Canadian G1 Woodbine Mile, a Breeder’s Cup Mile “win and you’re in” event. Tepin is coming off a Group 1 victory in the Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot in her European debut this June.
Tepin’s win in the Queen Anne was quite impressive. American horses don’t normally ship across the pond and win their debut Group 1 stakes race on the turf. Especially not when they run without their Lasix (an anti-bleeding medication) on a straight curse (no turns) that runs right to left. This Mark Casse trainee brushed off all inconveniences to prevail as the 5.50-1 third choice.
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As for the rest of the field, I am always leery of the Euro-shippers in graded turf events and the Woodbine Mile provides 3 of them, Arod, Mr. Owen, and Mutakayyef.
The best of these looks to be 5-2 morning line 2nd choice Mutakayyef. Coming in off a 3rd place finish in the G1 Juddmonte International at Great Britain’s York Racecourse, this 5yr old went to the fence in the stretch, looked to be squeezed by the eventual winner and came up short. I have watched this stretch run several times and I’m not convinced Mutakayyef had anything left even with a clear path. With that being said, it’s hard to discount a graded stakes veteran who is 13/13 lifetime in-the-money.
The three Canadian stabled contenders look more like turf sprinters. Tower of Texas, Passion for Action, and Glanville Gardens have all been consistent while battling each other for Canadian supremacy, but this is a much tougher spot. Tower of Texas is coming into the 2016 Woodbine Mile in the same shape as he did in 2015, with a 2nd in Woodbine’s G2 Play the King Stakes both years. This year he was beaten a half length by Glanville Gardens. In 2015 Tower of Texas followed up with a disappointing 7th in the Woodbine Mile.
Trying to beat Tepin here is a daunting task. Her lifetime earnings of over $3.5 million exceeds the combined earnings of the other 7 in the field. Maybe she will need a tightener after a 3-month layoff following the Queen Anne? The last time she took a 3-month vacation, Tepin came back to easily win a G3 event at Tampa Bay Downs.
Here’s how I see the race shaping up: European shipper Arod has had some success on the lead and I see him attacking out of the gate. Canadian sprinter/stalker Glanville Gardens should be up close. And then there is Tepin, with Julien Leparoux aboard, who will break from post 8 and sit in his usual stalking spot just off the lead with Mutakayyef close behind.
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So we have a Tepin who never loses and Mutakayyef who never finishes out of the money. How do we make money on this race? My longshot pick to grab a piece of the purse is Tower of Texas, ridden by Eurico Da Silva. Breaking from the rail, this closer should be able to save enough ground to be in contention entering the stretch. And with 24% of Woodbine 1m turf races being won by the #1 post, Tower of Texas may have just enough to get there if Tepin and Mutakayyef falter.
