All eyes will be on Frosted in the $1,250,000 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga (scheduled post Saturday, 6:18p, EDT). The Kiaran McLaughling trained colt looked phenomenal in the Grade I Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont in June, winning by 14-1/4 lengths in record time. So how do you play the race with a prohibitive favorite in a 6 horse field?
In poker terms, this race sets up like a hand where a short stack in early position has gone all-in in front of you and you need to find a way to make your mediocre hand profitable.
Betting on Frosted to win doesn’t offer much in terms of risk/reward. Just like merely calling the all-in. You know you can’t win much and you are hoping nobody in position comes over the top and puts you more at risk. So what do you do to make the Whitney a profitable betting race?
Get to the side pot! Stay small and stay away from Frosted. Raise that all-in and keep the rest of the field at bay. If Frosted wins, congratulate him on the effort and take solace in the fact that there is no 1-2 horse worth a win bet. If Frosted finishes out of the top two, there may be boxcar exactas with every other combination. That’s the side pot I am going after.
From a handicapping standpoint, Frosted’s Met. Mile may have been a 1-turn race anomoly. The Whitney is a 9-furlong, 2-turn race so this fact alone puts enough doubt on Frosted to stab at a full field of exactas that all exclude the favorite. You think Effinex may bounce (have a bad race) off his win in the Suburban? Is El Kabeir outclassed? Is Comfort another late bloomer from the Pletcher barn? If you can toss 2 other horses you are down to a very manageable 3 horse exacta box.
My advice: Don’t isolate that all-in by going all-in yourself. If it’s best, take the small loss. But if you are right and the short price is no good, you can take everyone’s money and turn a very nice profit on a very small investment. I’ll take those odds every time.
