- 2023 NFL Rookie of the Year betting guide: Offensive and Defensive categories.
- Previous winners’ trends were analyzed to identify potential Rookie of the Year candidates.
- Top contenders for Offensive ROTY: Bijan Robinson and Bryce Young.
- Longshot picks for Offensive ROTY: Will Levis could surprise at +4000 odds.
- Top contenders for Defensive ROTY: Will Anderson and Jalen Carter lead the way.
- Longshot pick for Defensive ROTY: Emmanuel Forbes has potential at +1800 odds.
It is that time of the year when we all slowly turn our attention toward football. The 2023 NFL preseason kicks off on August 10, while the regular season start is scheduled for September 7.
With the big games and happenings just around the corner, it is the perfect time to take a look at some of the attractive markets from the NFL Futures betting portfolio section at your favorite US sportsbook.
In this article, we will keep the attention on the 2023 NFL Rookie of the Year awards. For those who are not familiar (if there are any), this award is given to two players, one to the Offensive Rookie of the Year and the other to the Defensive Rookie of the Year.
We will see who the main contenders for the award on each side of the ball are and discuss the value of certain picks, sharing our thoughts on the best betting options, including the potential big-money longshots.
Winners From Previous Seasons
Before we move on to the 2023/24 Rookie of the Year candidates, let us quickly remind ourselves of the previous winners to try and find some pattern that may help our decision-making. Here is the list of the past six winners on both ends of the ball.
NFL Offensive ROTY Winners (2017-present)
| Year | Player | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Alvin Kamara | NO Saints | Running Back |
| 2018 | Saquon Barkley | NY Giants | Running Back |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | ARZ Cardinals | Quarterback |
| 2020 | Justin Herbert | LA Chargers | Quarterback |
| 2021 | Ja’Marr Chase | CIN Bengals | Wide Receiver |
| 2022 | Garrett Wilson | NY Jets | Wide Receiver |
As you can see, the Offensive Rookie of the Year award was split across three positions in the past six years. We have thus seen a big swing in trends, knowing that running backs have historically been the biggest favorites for the award.
As many as 35 running backs have won the award since 1967, with the remaining 21 awards divided between wide receivers (11) and quarterbacks (10). The mentioned change in trend in the last decade may sway us to the higher-upside option in terms of the odds for this season.
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NFL Defensive ROTY Winners (2017-present)
| Year | Player | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | Marshon Lattimore | NO Saints | Cornerback |
| 2018 | Shaquille Leonard | IND Colts | Linebacker |
| 2019 | Nick Bossa | SF 49ers | Edge Rusher |
| 2020 | Chase Young | WAS Football Team | Defensive Lineman |
| 2021 | Micah Parsons | DAL Cowboys | Linebacker |
| 2022 | Sauce Gardner | NY Jets | Cornerback |
Things are similar on the defensive end of the ball regarding this award. Linebackers used to dominate in the past, with 26 winners since 1967. Nevertheless, the winners have evened out over the past decade as four defensive ends, three cornerbacks, two linebackers, and a single defensive tackle have won the award in the last ten years.
2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year — Our Top Predictions
We have observed odds across all of the biggest US sportsbooks. As a result, we will help you find the best value for each of your preferred candidates because the odds differ from one operator to another.
Also, it is important to mention that with NFL betting, we are witnessing a constant change in the odds, and we expect it to be an even more frequent feature once the preseason is over and, more importantly, the regular season start.
Bijan Robinson and Bryce Young stand out on the offensive end.
Top Contenders for the NFL 2023 Offensive ROTY Award
- Bijan Robinson at +300
- Bryce Young at +420
- CJ Stroud at +900
- Anthony Richardson at +900
- Jahmyr Gibbs at +1100
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba at +1400
Our main betting predictions focus on the following two players — one firm favorite and one longshot opportunity.
Bijan Robinson at +300 with FanDuel
Running backs have won the award in back-to-back seasons in 2017 and 2018. You do not normally see them as the main contenders to win the prestigious award, but you generally do not see them being drafted as early as the eighth overall position, either.
This was just the case with Bijan Robinson, who has enjoyed a fantastic five-year period with the Texas Longhorns. Robinson has carried his team since 2018, thanks to an amazing blend of speed and power.
He is also very much capable of catching the ball and we are very much optimistic about his chances of dominating the football stadiums all over the United States this year. Bijan is the main favorite for a reason, and we would back him to win the award at the +300 odds with FanDuel.
Will Levis at +4000 with DraftKings
This market is generally a decent one for big longshots because you never know which player can show up and have a dream campaign out of nowhere. As mentioned above, Robinson is our top contender for the award this year but if we have to choose an alternative, his name would be Will Levis.
Although the Kentucky star has not been selected among the top ten in the 2023 NFL Draft, this quarterback has everything it takes to be a big star in the league.
His path may not be the easiest, but Will has the “X” factor. He can learn a lot from a great coach such as Mike Vrabel, and we can find the value in backing him to win the award at the attractive +4000 odds you’ll find at DraftKings.
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2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year — Our Top Predictions
Will Anderson and Jalen Carter lead the way when it comes to the main favorites for the Defensive Player of the Year award. Since Anderson (the main favorite at +400 odds) plays in the center of defense, we can hardly see him standing out.
This is why we see much better value with Carter, currently priced at the +750 odds.
Top Contenders for the NFL 2023 Offensive ROTY Award
- Will Anderson at +400
- Jalen Carter at +750
- Tyree Wilson at +900
- Devon Witherspoon at +1000
- Christian Gonzalez at +1100
- Lukas Van Ness at +1400
Here is a brief explanation of why we see Carter as the best betting option as well as our top longshot recommendation:
Jalen Carter at +750 with FanDuel
The Super Bowl runners-up Philadelphia Eagles drafted Georgia’s defensive lineman Jalen Carter. There are bountiful reasons for us to expect Carter to shine in this phenomenal defensive unit.
Jalen has everything it takes to be one of the best defenders in the league. He will also play alongside his former teammates from Georgia — Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis. They should make his transitional period easier.
We see great value in backing him at the +750 odds at FanDuel for the Defensive Rookie of the Year award, considering the stat-padding possibilities with this team.
Emmanuel Forbes at +1800 with Fanduel
Emmanuel Forbes is a perfect longshot option. He was the second of four drafted cornerbacks in the first round this year. He will play with Washington Commanders who possess a great pass rush, like Montez Sweat and Chase Young.
We can see a lot of space for Forbes to shine, and we would by no means be surprised to see him exploding in his rookie season. We see a golden opportunity to wager on this promising young player at the +1800 odds at FanDuel right now.
