Belmont Park will host the G1 $1,000,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup this Saturday. This Breeder’s Cup Classic “win and you’re in” event will be contested at 1-1/4 miles over the dirt course. The race will include several of the east coast’s finest, sans Dortmund, who sacrificed himself against California Chrome in the G1 Awesome Again last week. Dortmund stablemate Hoppertunity, who scratched out of the Awesome Again, will be there for trainer Bob Baffert.
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The Belmont dirt course has been playing pretty evenly since September 9th . No post positions have been winning at an unusual rate. A reasonable 20% of dirt routes have been won wire to wire, and 20% of these races have also been won by deep closer types. The only track bias statistic that caught my eye was that the average distance behind the leader at the 2nd call was 0.9 lengths. This tells me that even if you are a closer, you had better be near the leaders by the time you enter the stretch.
When diving into the past performances, my first thought is that there is an absence of pure speed in the race. None of the real contenders want or need the front. Bob Baffert’s Hoppertunity and Kiaran McLaughlin’s Mubtaahij will both be well bet, but both would greatly benefit from a contested pace. I don’t see a hot pace developing.
This leaves me with Effinex and Mike Smith crossing over from the #6 post and going to the front. I am not a huge Mike Smith fan on a closer as he has a tendency to loop around other horses and lose a lot of ground, but on a front runner he might be the best judge of pace in the industry. Mike Smith carried Effinex 3 wide around both turns in the Whitney at Saratoga. That’s a ton of ground to lose, and the pace was hot. Smith was correct in trying to get out early, but when he couldn’t get the front the lost ground was deadly.
I look for Effinex to improve greatly off of that troubled trip at the Spa. If you were following my preview of the Whitney, it was noted that Saratoga was an inside and up front track. Effinex ran against both parts of the bias and finished evenly. He was 2-1//2 lengths back at the first call and finished 2-1/2 lengths back. If Effinex can find the rail and get loose on the lead, I think the race is over.
My pick to get up for second is Protonico from the #1 post. This Todd Pletcher trainee with Javier Castellano up is coming off of an $80,0000 allowance race tune-up after a 10 month layoff. He stumbled at the start in his last, settled 3 wide on the turn and was game to grind it out for the win. The speed figure for that race was modest but I give him a break after the tough start and the 10 month layoff. This race answered any questions about the 10 month layoff and I look for this graded stakes veteran to improve greatly off of that tightener. The only question is if he can get the 1-1/4 mile.
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Postscript: I would like to know why Bob Baffert decided to run Dortmund against California Chrome last week in the $300,000 Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita. Dortmund was nominated here and would have been better suited sitting on or near the lead against a field without Chrome and for a $1,000,000 purse. Even a 2nd place finish here would have been a bigger payday than a win last week. Plus the same “win and you’re in” bonus without Chrome in the field. I guess that’s why I write and he trains.
