Now that championship season is over we can get back to the bread and butter of horseplayers by handicapping Saturday’s G3 $100,000 Cardinal Handicap at Churchill Downs. This race is for fillies and mares, 3yr olds and up and will be contested by 13 probable starters at 1-1/8 miles over the turf course. With 13 runners and a morning line favorite at 7-2, this sets up as a nice betting race.
The Churchill Downs turf course has been running from behind in route races since September 16th with only 6% of 31 races won wire to wire, but with 2 of 11 races in the past week won on the front. I checked out the two wire to wire winners this past week and one of them was a 2-5 shot in a 6 horse field while the other was 15-1 with no closers in sight. This forced me to check the charts and replays of all recent turf routes and I’m convinced that the place to be is off of the pace. There were several far off the pace longshot winners as well as several stalking winners with the pacesetters fading. I did not notice any significant post position advantages.
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The Cardinal Handicap presents us with an additional challenge in that, of the 13 probable starters, 6 last ran at Keeneland, with the rest running at Santa Anita, Belmont, Laurel, Indiana Grand, Woodbine, and Presque Isle. I did the heavy lifting of looking up the Brisnet Track bias stats at each track to find that Presque Isle had 22% front end turf route winners with the rest of the tracks ranging from 14% (Santa Anita) to 20% (Laurel) front end winners. The numbers are roughly the same as the Churchill Downs statistics and are all of significant sample sizes. If the horse ran against the bias in her last race, they will face the same bias in the Cardinal.
If we are going to be looking for a closer at a price we will need to find some pace in the race to set us up. 12 of the 13 horses in the field are exclusively a turf route runner so there is no fake sprinter speed to rely on. Kittens Roar, a Mike Maker 4yr old, has taken a step forward in terms of quickness since being laid off for 6 weeks and has a chance to go out early. This filly had been a straight up closer against allowance company until that layoff. Annulment, another former closer, unexpectedly fired superbly in an allowance race over a sloppy track at Keeneland for a win. Belle de Nuit, trained by Mark Casse, looks to need the lead but his early speed figures say she will not be able to get it. Throw in the speedy Lots O’ Lex from post 11 and I have enough speed to think a closer will be there to pick up the pieces.
Of the horses I considered and let go, Real Smart is breaking from the rail and is coming off of a 9th place G1 effort at Santa Anita, but only beaten 4-1/4 lengths against a slow pace. My biggest concern here is that trainer Graham Motion has Chris Landeros, a 6% jockey aboard. The #3 Complete St. had plenty of pace to run at in his last 2 efforts but came second in both while being fairly well bet at Laurel. #9 Heath disappointed as the favorite in his last 2 with the most recent run being against allowance non-winners of 3 other than maiden or claiming. Her speed figures are modest so I will pass. #10 Salama has also posted modest speed figures in her last 2 so I think she can catch a minor award at best.
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Lady Fog Horn invades from Indiana Grand where she was sent off as the betting favorite in 5 of her last 6, coming home a winner four times including twice on the grass. She will be leaving from the #4 post and her 10-1 morning line is a very enticing price. She has run once before on the Churchill Downs turf course finishing 2nd in the 2015 G3 Cardinal Stakes at 20-1. Her recent races show her closing well without alot to run at and her speed figures have been steady and enough to beat these. If she can handle the competitors getting big class relief from their G1 and G2 affairs, I see her bringing home the trophy on Saturday. Lady Fog Horn is also the only contender who doesn’t seem to mind the dirt so I will keep her on top even if the weather turns wet and the race is taken off the turf.
My next choice is #6 Tea Cups who is listed at 8-1 in the morning line. This Jeremiah Engelhart trainee had a huge excuse for spitting the bit early in a $200k stakes event at Belmont. That race was taken off the turf and run in deep slop. Her 2 prior tries were after a nice layoff and showed competitive speed figures from off the pace where she encountered road trouble and a 5-wide trip in both. It was difficult to not put this filly on top. The horrible running line in the slop will surely help our price come post time.
The bottom line is that I like Lady Fog Horn to win the race, and in my exotics I like her on top of Tea Cups, with Annulment and Real Smart rounding out my superfecta.