The PGA Tour moves to Las Vegas, Nevada as the Shriners Children’s Open will close the PGA Fall Series this week.
Tom Kim is the reigning champion and the main favorite for the crown in the 2023 event, sitting just above the recent Ryder Cup European hero Ludvig Aberg in the latest sportsbooks’ lists.
There is a significant gap between this duo and the rest of the field in terms of the outright winner odds. Should sports bettors keep the primary focus on them, or can we find a hidden gem among the underdogs?
Read on and check the most important facts about the event in Sin City as we share our thoughts and predictions. Spoiler alert: we might have an exciting longshot for you.
Key TPC Summerlin Facts
On paper, the golf course at TPC Summerlin is 7,255 yards long, but it is significantly shorter in reality because of the desert air at Vegas’ elevation. Golfers consider it a birdie paradise with lavish fairways and greens. The ball travels farther in these conditions, increasing the significance of keeping in play off the tee. You should thus not be surprised to learn that each of the past five winners, including Tom Kim, has eclipsed 20-under along the way.
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Stats Worth Considering
Accurate ball striking is the key to success at TPC Summerlin. To get in a position to place a well-informed 2023 Shriner’s Children Open bet, we need to analyze each golfer’s showings in desert conditions such as Shadow Creek, Stadium Course, or Scottsdale.
In terms of the stats that gain importance in this course, we’d underline BoB Gained, Doubles Avoided, SG:SG, and SG:APP. To stay in contention for the Las Vegas title, a player needs to rank above average in these stats in particular.
The Main Favorites
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The defending champion indeed excels in most of the important criteria for success in Sin City, and he stands tall in the sportsbooks’ odds for a good reason. We can hardly say anything to put you off the +1100 odds offered by BetMGM for Tom Kim to defend his Shriner’s Children’s Cup title for the first time in his career.
The second favorite is Ludvig Aberg, who has not thrived in desert conditions in the past. Instead, he is up there with Tom Kim based on form. The Swede backed up his fantastic whirlwind in Rome with another phenomenal performance at the Sanderson Farm Championship only several days later. Nevertheless, we don’t want him to prolong the sensational run of form on a course not suited to his strengths. It is very difficult to find the value in the +1200 odds offered by BetMGM on his outright win in Las Vegas.
Cam Davis and Si Woo Kim are next in the pecking order among the favorites, with +2200 and +2500 respective odds for the win. We do not lean towards either. For us, the fun part begins with J.T. Poston, who is priced at +3000 to win with BetMGM, while DraftKings has him up at +3500 odds.
Best Pick #1 — J.P. Poston to Win (+3500) with DraftKings
J.P. Poston is one of the rare golfers to rank above average in all ten significant stat categories for the TPC Summerlin course, and we just can’t ignore the super-attractive +3500 odds offered for his success this week. The stake for this one shouldn’t be high since it’s a value wager.
Bet on J.P. Poston To Win at the +3500 odds with DraftKings »
Best Pick #2 — Aaron Rai to Finish Top 10 (+400) with DraftKings
Aaron Rai is another player we fancy to have a strong performance in Las Vegas. The Englishman has been in the top 10 in all relevant statistical areas for desert golf across his previous 36 rounds. If you are brave enough, DraftKings has him at +4000 to go all the way and win the event. We will use a more conservative approach and back Rai to secure a top-10 finish at the +400 odds.
Bet on Aaron Rai To Finish Top 10 at the +400 odds with DraftKings »
