Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers have defied the odds and claimed some huge scalps on the way to paradise as they are ready for the big Fall Classic in a best-of-seven affair with a national championship at stake.
The D-Backs will enter their second World Series, having won it all in 2001. The Rangers will search for their inaugural title in the third attempt, following back-to-back World Series defeats in 2010 and 2011.
US sportsbook apps have Texas as -170 favorites to win, but this postseason action has been much gentler towards the underdogs. Will the trend continue in the season finale?
The Fall Classic begins on Friday, October 27 (8:03 p.m. ET) at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas with live coverage secured by FOX.
Evenly Matched Pitching Staffs
There is not much to separate the two outfits’ pitching departments. Both sides have struggled in this segment throughout the season, sitting in the middle third of the caravan at best. The teams did not thrive in pitching in the playoffs either, with the Rangers making it to the World Series with the fifth-best ERA record.
There are no secrets when it comes to their main strengths on the mound. Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery will lead the rotation for Texas while Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are expected to carry the D-Backs as the top two options.
A third-starter position will be interesting as we see it as an advantage for Arizona in a matchup between rookie Brandon Pfaadt and Max Scherzer. Scherzer has more experience, but Pfaadt has been fantastic for the Diamondbacks in the postseason. Pfaadt’s form can make the difference here. We also trust Arizona more when it comes to their bullpen with the likes of Kevin Ginkel, Ryan Thompson, and Paul Sewald providing more depth on paper than Texas’ lineup of Aroldis Chapman, Josh Spborz, and Jose Leclerc.
To sum it all up, the D-Backs have a slight edge in this department, but we are afraid that pitching will not be the difference maker in the grand scheme of things.
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The Rangers’ Offense to Prevail
While both teams have been a tad average in pitching numbers this term, Texas should have a significant advantage in batting. Corey Seager is the main 2023 World Series MVP contender (+500 with BetMGM) for a reason, while his partner in crime Adolis Garcia is enjoying a spectacular postseason form.
On top of this duo, Texas are stacked in all nine positions. They top the league with 7.9 fastball runs above average in the playoffs. After all, the sluggers have led the Rangers to the wins over Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Houston. Texas are in the top four in the nation in five significant offensive categories and the following table will serve as the best indicator of their offensive dominance in this matchup.
| Team | Runs Scored | Batting Average | Home Runs | fWAR | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 881 (3rd) | .263 (2nd) | 233 (4th) | 33.3 (3rd) | 114 (4th) |
| Diamondbacks | 746 (15th) | .250 (14th) | 166 (22nd) | 19.7 (13th) | 97 (18th) |
Everything points towards high-scoring affairs in the World Series and it is very hard to move away from such presumptions by looking at the teams’ form. Texas scored four or more runs in nine of their twelve postseason outings, while Arizona did so in eight of their twelve playoff games.
Instead of opting for the World Series winner, we will focus on efficiency and choose the Over 50.5 runs in the series as the best betting option. Texas is the favorite for a good reason, but the -170 odds can hardly offer value in the biggest series of the season. Arizona has shown quality by getting past the Brewers, the Dodgers (in a sweep), and the Phillies on the way to the Fall Classic and we can by no means see a walkthrough for the Rangers here.
Instead, we would not be surprised to see all seven games in the series and we certainly expect fireworks in every single of these along the way. The braver tipsters can shoot for the World Series exact score market and take the Rangers to win 4-3 at sky-high +400 odds with DraftKings.
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