In-Depth: Australian Open 2024 Betting Odds and Predictions

It’s summer in Australia, meaning the best tennis players on the planet descend down under in search of Grand Slam glory.

The first of four majors of the year kickstarts on Saturday, January 13, and lasts until Saturday, January 27, running for 15 days for the first time in tournament’s history.

With Rafael Nadal and Naomi Osaka returning to the big stage, and all of your usual suspects expected to be in Melbourne, the 2024 Australian Open could be a special event in so many ways.

There’s a lot of open questions ahead of the first slam of the season in both men’s and women’s tournaments. We are here to answer as many as possible, sharing the best betting predictions along the way.

Learn more on tennis betting with our in-depth guide: Sports Betting 101: Betting on Tennis

Australian 2024 Open Men’s seeds

We will begin with the list of the top 10 seeds in the men’s tournament, including the best outright winner odds for each of them in the table below.

Novak Djokovic is the top seed and sportsbooks see him as the main favorite for a good reason. Rod Laver Arena is his living room and this is the place where the Serbian claimed 10 titles. Alcaraz, Sinner, and Medvedev will be his main rivals alongside one more familiar bloke who has not made it to the list of seeds. His name is Rafael Nadal and he has 22 slam titles in his career.

The United States will have five seeded players, including Taylor Fritz (10) who is +650 to stun the main contenders and claim his maiden grand slam trophy.

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Best Pick — Novak Djokovic To Win Outright (+100) with DraftKings

Novak Djokovic dropped just one grand slam match last season and the loss came at the least likely place. The Serbian shockingly fell to Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final last year, missing a chance to complete the year slam. He went on to beat Daniil Medvedev in the US Open final to end 2023 with three grand slams, improving his all-time record to a total tally of 24.

On top of three majors, Novak confirmed his extraordinary form by winning the last two tournaments of the year, the Paris Masters in Bercy and the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin. The Serb won 10 of his 24 total slams in Australia, where he has not been defeated since 2018, and the fourth-round clash against Chung Hyeon.

Novak won four of the previous five Australian Open editions, skipping only the 2022 event through non-sportive reasons. He has 28 wins on the spin in Melbourne, an Open Era record.

It is great to have almost prime Novak to win his beloved tournament at plus odds and it is certainly an opportunity we will not miss out on. Whatever you hear or read, there is no better pick for the 2024 Australian Open than backing Djokovic to win at +100 odds with DraftKings.

Last verified: April 2024

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Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Sinner are the Only Legitimate Challengers

Carlos Alcaraz was the only man to have beaten Djokovic in a grand slam match last year. He enters the 2024 Australian Open as the second seed and he has already won a hard-court major thanks to the 2022 US Open title.

That said, Carlitos has only featured in Melbourne twice in the past, failing to enter the second week of the tournament on either occasion. The Spaniard was the World No. 1 ahead of last year’s Aussie Open but was forced to pull out through a leg injury. He has not been anywhere near his best form ever since beating Djokovic last summer in All England Club and we don’t see any value in backing him to go all the way in this tournament at +300 odds.

Daniil Medvedev is the third seed. He has a combined five finals at two hard court slams (the US Open and Australian Open) and he won the US Open in 2021. The Russian does know how to go deep in Melbourne, playing back-to-back finals in 2021 and 2022. He lost both, to Djokovic and Nadal respectively. We’d not be surprised to see him reaching the final once again but does he have enough to shock Novak like he did in New York three years ago? Probably not.

We now come to our favorite dark-horse betting option, Jannik Sinner. The Italian does not have an impressive grand slam portfolio, particularly not in Australia where he only managed to reach the quarterfinal once, falling there to Stefanos Tsitsipas two years ago.

However, Sinner ended last year in the strongest way possible, beating Novak Djokovic twice within several weeks. He first did it in the Nitto ATP Finals round-robin and then, more importantly, in the crucial Davis Cup semifinal tie. Jannik went on to lead his Italy to the Davis Cup throne, while he will also remember 2023 for his inaugural Masters 1000 trophy in Canada.

Jannik is fourth seed in Melbourne, meaning he will avoid the main three favorites before the semifinal. After his two wins over the Serb in November, we actually think that Sinner is the only man capable of dethroning Novak at Rod Laver Arena. DraftKings has the Italian at +600 odds to win his inaugural grand slam title.

Last verified: April 2024

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Australian Open 2024 Women’s Seeds

Women’s tournaments usually bring more diversity in terms of potential winners’ candidates. The World No.1 Iga Swiatek is the main favorite but the list of possible challengers is quite long. Here are the top 10 seeds, each of which has a genuine shot at claiming the title:

On top of these ten players, we have to give honorable mentions to Beatriz Haddad-Maia, Maddison Keys, Jelena Ostapenko, Petra Kvitova, Belinda Bencic, Victoria Azarenka, Elina Svitolina, and Naomi Osaka. They have all shown quality in big matches over the last several years and we would not be surprised to see either going all the way in Melbourne.

Also, US tennis fans will pay attention at the women’s tournament in particular with two Americans inside the top five seeds, Gauff and Pegula.

Best pick — Coco Gauff to Win Outright (+900) with DraftKings

On her day, Iga Swiatek is the best player in women’s tennis. She showcased her dominance in the 2023 WTA Finals, destroying World No. 5 Jessica Pegula 6-1 6-0 in the final. The problem is that Iga does not play at her best all the time. She couldn’t make it past the quarterfinal in either hard-court major last year. Her best Australian Open result was the 2022 semifinal when the Pole fell to Danielle Collins. Taking this into consideration, we don’t see the value in backing Swiatek at +275 odds.

The sportsbooks see last year’s finalists Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina as the main challengers for Swiatek but their form in the second half of last year does not promise a similarly long run in Melbourne this time around.

Instead, our eyes will firmly be on Coco Gauff who will travel down under on the back of her first grand slam title. The 19-year-old stunned Aryna Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open final, coming back from a set down to earn significant accolades from the American mainstream sporting media. While she did suffer two tough losses to Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula at the WTA Finals, Gauff possesses that special flare required for a grand slam champion. We like her very much at staggering +900 odds with DraftKings.