Will 4Poker's Mystery Bounty Tourmament Be One of the Biggest Overlays in Poker History? Will 4Poker's Mystery Bounty Tourmament Be One of the Biggest Overlays in Poker History?

4Poker may be a recent entrant in the online poker scene, but it is boldly venturing into the spotlight by hosting two audacious tournaments with massive guarantees — both of which look certain to overlay by a massive margin.

The poker room, co-founded by high stakes poker specialist Bryn Kenney, is hosting two Mystery Bounty tournaments (MBT), one of which guarantees a whopping $1 million in prize money.

The $1 million-guaranteed MBT has a $270 buy-in, while the other, with a $100,000 guarantee, has a $22 buy-in. Both follow the multi-flight structure; Day 1s have been held twice daily since December 10.

The ultimate showdown is set for January 15, 2024, providing ample opportunity for players to qualify for Phase 2. Both tournament employs the “cumulative stack” format: Players that play in multiple Phase 1 tournaments build a single stack for the Final Phase. All Day 1 survivors are guaranteed a share of the prize money and a chance to compete for mystery bounties.

Overview of 4Poker’s Mystery Bounty tournaments:

  • Two tournaments with buy-ins of $270 and $22
  • Guarantees of $1 million and $100,000 respectively
  • Daily satellites starting from 25 cents
  • Phase 1 tournaments running daily
  • Final Phase on January 15, 2024

Could it Be the Biggest Overlay of the Year?

At the time of writing, both tournaments are considerably below their guaranteed prize money, and there’s every chance that there could be a massive overlay — possibly one of the biggest in online poker history.

The $1 million-guaranteed MBT would need 4000 entrants to cover its seven-figure guarantee. So far it has only attracted 219 runners — just 5.5% of the target. Right now, it is falling short by over $940,000.

The smaller version, with a $100,000 guarantee, faces a similar challenge. Requiring 5000 runners to avoid an overlay, it has only attracted 372 participants so far, covering just 7.4% of the guarantee and falling short by $91,816.

4Poker MBTs Small Large
Buy-In $22 $270
Guarantee $100,000 $1 million
Target Players 5000 4000
Total Entries to Date 372 219
% of Guarantee Covered 7.4% 5.5%

Despite being only halfway through, it appears unlikely that either of these tournaments will reach their targets, making overlays seem inevitable. In fact, there’s a possibility they might go down in history as some of the most substantial overlays in online poker for the year 2024, offering significant value to players that should not be missed.

As of now, PokerStars holds the record for the largest overlay in online poker. In December 2020, the Big Blowout tournament, featuring a $109 buy-in with a $5 million guarantee, drew 37,673 entries, resulting in a shortfall of $1.23 million.

While 4Poker’s tournaments can’t literally exceed this, the $1 million-guaranteed Mystery Bounty event could get close. At the current rate, it it set to overlay by well over $900,000.

And as a percentage of prize money collected to total guarantee, this could certainly be among the biggest misses in online poker — at the current rate, it could collect less than 20% of the prize pool in entry fees. Other events have seen higher relative overlays — WPT Global recently ran a $1 For $1 Million, with a $900k+ overlay, for example — but these tournaments were designed to miss (there’s a cap on entries to assure it).

4Poker is Known for Slapping Audacious Guarantees on its MTTs

4Poker has a track record of hosting tournaments with ambitious guarantees, despite its cash game traffic remaining subdued. Since launching tournaments in April 2023, the Isle of Man-based operator has consistently hosted high-profile tournaments with four-digit buy-ins and guarantees exceeding $200,000.

Despite experiencing six-figure overlays, the operator persisted in hosting massive guaranteed tournaments, including a $2.75 million guaranteed High Roller event (although it was later canceled).

This audacious approach was unsurprisingly short-lived, prompting the operator to eventually scale back and organize more modestly guaranteed tournaments. Nevertheless, there has been a resurgence in their commitment to hosting ambitious events, with the operator anticipating that enticing guarantees will lure players to their recently launched platform.

4Poker is currently running daily satellites for the mystery bounty events, starting from as low as 25 cents. Additionally, the site offers rake-free flip satellites and mega satellites every Sunday, guaranteeing 40 seats. The operator’s weekly tournament schedule predominantly revolves around these two mystery bounty events, as the next most significant guaranteed tournament is the Daily $109 Turbo event, featuring a modest $1000 guaranteed prize money.