- The 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year race is heating up, with more than 60 talented prospects entering the league.
- French sensation Victor Wembanyama leads the odds, but his dominance is not guaranteed.
- Learn about the voting process and eligibility criteria for the Rookie of the Year award.
- Explore past winners and their odds, including players who overcame challenges to claim the title.
- With new rules, other contenders like Chet Holmgren, Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, and Leonard Miller have a chance to shine.
The 2023 NBA Draft is behind us, meaning we can shift our attention to talk about the most talented rookies. With more than 60 prospects set to hit the NBA floors for the first time this year, there is plenty to discuss regarding their impact on their respective teams.
As you probably know by now, the French rising star Victor Wembanyama was selected as the No. 1 overall by the San Antonio Spurs. A generational unicorn was expected to lead the way in the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year odds, but his supremacy over the rest of the pack reflected by the odds is a little bit exaggerated, in our opinion.
So, who elects the Rookie of the Year? A panel of 100 media members votes for the NBA Rookie of the Year award. The voters can’t be associated with any NBA franchise, and the votes are made based on the players’ performances in the regular season (not the playoffs). Each member gets to vote for the top three players. The player with the highest total at the end of the counting process wins the award.
In the past, we have had several precedents with players who won the award despite missing way too many games in the season. LaMelo Ball thus missed out on 21 games with a broken wrist two seasons ago but still won the award. Zion Williamson came third in the ROY voting in 2019 despite playing only 24 matches throughout the season.
In response to these precedents, the NBA changed its CBA and set a threshold of 65+ games for a player to be eligible for the ROY award. This decision will undoubtedly play a massive role in the 2024 Rookie of the Year selection, opening a wide range of betting possibilities at US sportsbooks.
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Most Recent Winners & Their Odds
The look into recent history serves as a great indicator of the outrageous hype around Victor Wembanyama ahead of the 2023/24 campaign. Wemby is -200 to win the award before making his NBA debut.
To put things into perspective, the likes of LeBron James and Luka Doncic were nowhere near minus odds for the ROY award when they first joined the NBA. James was set at +150, while you could have captured the fantastic +250 odds of Luka Doncic winning the prize in the 2018/19 season.
Paolo Banchero cruised to the Rookie of the Year for 2023 after being selected as a No. 1 pick by the Orlando Magic. He had an outstanding campaign with the Magic, and his odds moved from +200 in the offseason to -1200 midway through January.
The race for the 2021/22 award was one of the tightest ever as the Toronto Raptors’ forward Scottie Barnes squeezed past the Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley with 48 to 43 first-place votes.
LaMelo Ball won the award three years ago at +400 odds, while Ja Morant had a +250 price tag before taking the prize in the 2019/20 campaign.
2024 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
The Wemby bandwagon is filled to capacity as the 19-year-old Frenchman is -200 (or shorter) at most sportsbooks to win the prestigious ROY award at the end of the regular season.
Nevertheless, with the new rules imposed by the new CBA regarding the threshold for the minimal number of games played over the season, the Chet Holmgren Factor, and the presence of other talented players such as Scoot Henderson, the Thompson twins, or Brandon Miller, the ROY race may prove much more exciting than we think.
Here are our thoughts on the prime contenders, dark horses, long shots, and the best-value picks.
Victor Wembanyama (SA Spurs) @ -160
Before starting with Wembanyama’s prospects, we must praise FanDuel Sportsbook here for its generosity. If you want to bet on the No. 1 overall draft pick to go on and win the ROY award (much like Banchero did last year) at one of the best sports betting sites in the US, then FanDuel is the place to go. Other US sportsbooks have Wemby at around -200, some even at -225 and shorter, while FanDuel offers the best odds, keeping the Frenchman at -160 to win the award.
As much as we hate such short odds, it would not be wise to put any other name above Victor’s at this moment. Going for minus odds (especially -200 and shorter) on a season-long pick is tough. However, if you take a serious approach, the 19-year-old Frenchman has to be the main favorite by some distance.
The 7-5 boy with an 8-foot wingspan is a generational talent. He has had an excellent campaign in senior basketball in the top-tier French team Metropolitans 92, averaging 21.6 points and 10.4 rebounds per game in 34 outings played across competitions.
His tutor at the Spurs will be Gregg Popovich, who has led the likes of David Robinson and Tim Duncan to their Rookie of the Year awards in the past. Wembanyama is determined to become a superstar on the biggest stage, and he has shifted his entire focus on the preparations for the next season, withdrawing from the French national team ahead of the 2023 FIBA World Cup.
Now we move to the problems. Wembanyama has never played an 82-game season. He needs to feature in at least 65 games to be considered for the ROY award. Also, he does not have too much meat on his bones, and we have witnessed similar players struggling with season durability in the past.
This 65-game minimum will probably represent the biggest obstacle to Wembanyama’s ROY award heroics. We will leave it up to you to decide whether it is worth betting against at -200 odds.
Learn More: Sports Betting 101: How Sports Betting Lines Work.
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Chet Holmgren (OKC Thunder) @ +650
Chet was the second overall pick in 2022, but he missed the entire last season due to a foot injury. Most experts had him as the top contender for the 2023 Rookie of the Year award when he starred for the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2022 Summer League.
Of course, it is tough to say whether his talent will overcome the mentioned injury that kept him off the court for the entire year.
You can also look at things the other way around, saying Holmgren has been in the NBA for one season longer than any of his rivals for the 2024 award despite not playing matches. Also, his Oklahoma City Thunder have had a glorious end to last season with a young and talented roster all over the place, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
If Holmgren lives up to his ambitions and shows his genuine talent, the Thunder can play a significant role in the 2023/24 campaign, and Chet has a great shot at winning the award.
Scoot Henderson (POR Trail Blazers) @ +400
The Portland Trail Blazers selected Scoot Henderson as the No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 NBA draft. The team had a subpar campaign last time, and we still hear the rumors about Damian Lillard’s trade.
Regardless of what happens to Lillard, Scoot Henderson is a brilliant match for the Blazers and a super-hot prospect in the 2024 NBA Rookie of the Year award race.
If Lillard leaves, Henderson will get the keys to the entire team, meaning his offensive numbers should be sky-high. If Lillard stays, the Blazers will have a fantastic blend of talented experience and youth, and they can get back to playoff contention in the West.
Either way, Scoot does represent value at the +400 odds, especially with the 65-game minimum going against Wemby.
Amen Thompson (HOU Rockets) @ +2500
Amen Thompson should flourish under Ime Udoka at the Houston Rockets. The Overtime Elite guard should get a lot of minutes in this team. His playmaking and explosiveness make Amen a threat on both ends of the floor.
Thompson was not chosen in the top three in this year’s draft, so most experts have overlooked his name. Nevertheless, he certainly has everything he needs to explode in the NBA, and he is well worth backing to win this award at the lucrative +2500 odds.
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Leonard Miller (MIN Timberwolves) @ +16000
You rarely see long shots winning this award. This year it will be even more challenging for the less-popular prospects to stun the favorites in such a strong and talented generation and with Victor Wembanyama as a rookie in the league.
Let us introduce Leonard Miller, one of the standout performers in the G League last year. Scoot Henderson overshadowed Leonard in the G League, but make no mistake — this youngster is very talented.
He can handle the ball very well for a guy with a 7-2 wingspan, and anything is possible if he connects with the Wolves’ teammates. Again, this is a huge longshot, but the fact you can win $320 for a $2 stake makes Miller an exciting option worth considering for the minimum investment.
