Alberta is about to become the second Canadian province to issue licenses to private iGaming operators, with July 13 set as the official date of launch.

The operating model will closely resemble that of Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, which has offered regulated iGaming since 2022.

Yet, with just a few months to go, there are still some uncertainties surrounding the launch, and the fate of online poker in Alberta is one of the biggest unknowns.

More than 30 operators have expressed interest in launching in Alberta, but quite a few of those are only interested in the online casino vertical. Which online poker sites will launch in July, how the player pool will be structured, and whether online poker even becomes available this summer remain unclear.

We took a look at a few possible scenarios for the future of Alberta online poker and assessed how each of those could impact players.

Scenario 1: Ring-Fenced Alberta Poker Market

While Alberta gaming regulators have joined a Supreme Court case regarding player liquidity sharing across provincial borders, which was initiated in Ontario, the outcome of this saga remains unclear.

Until a final decision is made, it’s possible that any online poker operators would only be allowed to launch their products within a ring-fenced market, similar to the one that exists in Ontario.

For poker players in Alberta, this would be a major blow, as they would go from being able to play in a large international player pool to only playing with other Albertans overnight.

There is only so much operators can do to make online poker in Alberta truly exciting for the players in this scenario, as tournament prize pools, promotions, and all other financial aspects of their operations would be significantly restricted.

With Alberta’s population of just five million, the province cannot sustain the prize pools its players are used to. That would likely lead many players to keep playing in the international player pool via unregulated offshore sites.

Scenario 2: Alberta and Ontario Join Their Player Pools

A far more favorable scenario for poker players in both Alberta and Ontario would see these two provinces enter into a liquidity-sharing agreement, allowing operators to offer just one product across both provinces.

Ontario online poker is already booming, and operators would jump at the opportunity to expand their player pools, which would allow them to increase tournament guarantees and invest in promotions across the board.

Should operators be able to share liquidity between Alberta and Ontario from Day 1, it would be a great incentive for the likes of GGPoker, PokerStars, 888poker, and BetRivers Poker to pursue a launch as early as possible.

If things develop this way, poker players in both Ontario and Alberta will have a lot to look forward to, as it would mark a significant milestone in the expansion of online poker in Canada as a whole.

Scenario 3: Alberta Joins the Global Player Pool

By far the best outcome for Alberta poker enthusiasts would be the one where operators are allowed to let them join their international player pools, made up of millions of players from all over the world.

Stakeholders in both Ontario and Alberta are currently fighting this battle in front of the Supreme Court of Canada, and the outcome of this legal saga will affect the future of online poker in Canada and worldwide.

While this scenario is not the most likely one, at least not by the July 13 launch date, it’s one that seems possible at some point in the future.

If online poker operators in Canada are allowed to share their liquidity internationally, the impact would be massive, both for the players in the provinces and for the international versions of poker sites like GGPoker and PokerStars, which would receive a major influx of players, likely leading to further expansion.

Scenario 4: Online Poker Not a Part of the Initial Launch

Perhaps the least exciting potential scenario for Alberta poker players is the one where online poker is not included in the initial iGaming launch in July at all.

With the shared liquidity case still bogged down in the courts, it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility that major operators will wait for the case to be resolved before launching their online poker platforms in Alberta.

Should this happen, thousands of poker players would find themselves in an awkward position, as they would no longer be allowed to play on the international versions of regulated poker apps, but would also have no legal alternative within the province.

While this scenario remains unlikely, and at least one or two operators will probably deploy poker apps in Alberta in July, the full online poker launch in the province may be delayed by the pending court proceedings.

What’s Most Likely to Happen?

Regulated online poker is very likely to go live in Alberta this July, and operators like GGPoker and PokerStars already have a strong presence in the province. Once approved for a license, all they will need to do is transition players to the new platform in a similar way to how they did in Ontario back in 2022.

Moreover, operators like BetRivers will likely be looking at the Alberta launch as a new opportunity to expand their market share in North America and compete with the established operators from day one.

A ring-fenced market is very likely at launch, although Ontario and Alberta could be looking at a merged player pool in the near future. The future of international liquidity sharing remains unclear, as the Supreme Court case regarding it continues to develop.