The horse racing season will come to a climax when Santa Anita Park hosts this year’s Breeder’s Cup Championships on November 4th and 5th. All of the prep races for the event have been run so we are without a big race this weekend. Official entries and post positions for the Breeder’s Cup races will not be available for a few more days but there is a ton of information that we can start compiling to make our handicapping more effective. It is time to prepare.
Get a $100 sign up bonus at twinspires.com
Track Bias Information
The most important process in my preparation is the compiling of track bias information. Many of the contenders will be shipping in from tracks all across the country. When race-day comes we will need the context of the track bias at the ovals where our contenders last raced. This bias information is what will hopefully get us some nice prices come BC weekend. The bias information is invaluable when looking at horses that overcame a bias or for those who were aided by it. Knowing the bias can keep us away from horses who will be short priced because they were aided by bias, and it will put us on horses whose results weren’t as good as they seemed because their style ran against the bias.
I will be going back to the tracks where the major BC prep races were held and making sure I am familiar with each one’s post position bias, as well as any running style bias for dirt, turf, sprints and routes. The list of tracks I will be studying includes Belmont Park, Saratoga, Gulfstream Park, Churchill Downs, Keeneland, Kentucky Downs, Del Mar, Woodbine, and Parx. The one track I will not be studying yet will be the BC host, Santa Anita. I do not want to judge this track too early and leave myself being influenced before judgement day. A bias can change over time so I will leave Santa Anita alone until next week. The more data, the better.
General statistics for each track are usually available at the individual tracks’ websites, but I prefer to use the track bias information on the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances. Brisnet breaks down the running style statistics for each distance and surface into 4 categories: early speed, stalkers, mid-closers and deep closers. A post position win percentage is also available.
A prime example of a horse running with the bias would be Arrogate, winner of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga where he set a stakes and track record. If you have been following along you may recall that Saratoga 2-turn dirt races were being won on or near the lead around 76% of the time, and the #1 post was winning at a rate over 22%. Arrogate took advantage of both factors and turned in an other-worldly performance. Arrogate has not run another prep race since the Travers so it will be interesting to see if he can run the same race without the aid of both biases. I have been waiting patiently since the Travers to find value in Arrogate’s next race as I am hoping he will be over-bet.
Parsing The Data
Once the biases has been identified and I can single out horses like Arrogate who were aided by them, I will then look for horses who’s running styles ran against the bias. Closers who ran on upfront tracks, front runners who carried their speed on tracks that favored closers, horses who broke from disadvantageous post positions, etc. At first glance, the speed figures and charts for these horses might not seem too impressive but when we factor in the biases we can hopefully find a few hidden gems.
Get a $100 sign up bonus at twinspires.com
I took a peek at the chart of the Travers to identify anyone who fought that Saratoga front-runner bias and made a nice move from the back of the pack. The one that caught my eye was Governor Malibu. This colt bobbled at the start and was left back in 12th and last place at the first call. He then swung wide on the turn for home, was herded outward even farther, and came in a respectable 5th. I then checked the chart to see if the rest of the closers were also able to move up after Arrogate set such a blistering pace. What I saw was that Governor Malibu was the only horse from the back that was out-running horses and not just passing tiring rivals. He was fighting the bias and winning. Not enough to win the race, but enough to warrant strong consideration his next time out.
Proof that this exercise can turn a profit is that Governor Malibu won his next start on September 30th.
Once the track bias and post position bias information has been gathered and you have poured over the charts and replays of the major Breeder’s Cup prep races, you can sit back and relax until the fields are set and the past performances are available. That’s when it will be time to get serious about handicapping these races.
