It was a strange first step in handicapping the 147th running of the $1.25 million Travers Stakes. A visit to weather.com revealed that rain is unlikely this Saturday at Saratoga. A dry track is good news for the full field of 14 in the 1-1/4 mile test for 3-yr olds, except for 3-1 morning line favorite Exaggerator.
If the forecast was for an off track, my work would be done. Exaggerator, trained and ridden by the Desormeaux brothers, has won the Santa Anita Derby, Preakness Stakes and the Haskell, three Grade 1 affairs, at three different tracks, all in the mud. I couldn’t venture a guess as to which would have had higher odds, Exaggerator winning all three, or all three tracks coming up sloppy in the same season.
Without the threat of rain, Exaggerator’s abilities are still in question. His two most recent disappointments occurred on dry tracks at the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.
This year’s crop of 3-yr old colts doesn’t have a standout performer which makes the Travers an inviting scenario for the other hopefuls gunning for the $670,000 winner’s share.
Make legal online horse racing wagers in the US at BetAmerica.com
Nyquist, the Kentucky Derby champion, is back in California for some swim therapy following a growth spurt and won’t be at The Spa. The best 3-yr old filly, and possibly the best 3 yr old currently in training, is Songbird, and she won’t be there either. The race looks wide open.
When handicapping a 14 horse field at Saratoga, the trip will be the key. Through August 22nd, in 42 dirt races of 1-1/8 mile (no data for 1-1/4 races), Saratoga’s #1 post has produced winners at a 24% clip. According to Brisnet Track Bias stats, a whopping 76% of these races have been won by speed horses or stalker types. You want to be inside and up close around 2 turns at The Spa.
This wide open field of 14 presents several speed options. Arrogate, with Mike Smith aboard from the rail, and American Freedom from just to his outside should look to be on the pace.
Chad Brown trainee Connect, with John Velasquez up, and Jim Dandy winner Laoban will also be up front. Will this be enough pace for the true closers like Exaggerator or Belmont Stakes winner Creator? Or will the pace and track bias set it up more for a classic stalker like Destin?
In a Grade 1 route with several speed options, I am looking to the stalkers. I don’t see anyone getting an uncontested lead. My top pick here will be 10-1 morning line Destin. Though he hasn’t won since the Tampa Derby in March, this colt has had a steady diet of graded stakes contests. His only poor race was the Kentucky Derby where he was squeezed in the stampede out of the gate. This Todd Pletcher colt, breaking from post 8, will look to use his tactical speed to cross over to the rail and bide his time to the stretch. In the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, Destin caught early position to a slow pace but was unable to catch a well rated 27-1 Laoban. A perfect example of Saratoga’s track bias at work.
Another stalker to consider is Governor Malibu who is also coming out of the Jim Dandy. Governor Malibu is breaking from the 4 post and should have the chance to get to his stalking position. He too was unable to catch Laoban even after a perfect inside run on both turns.
The bottom line…Destin to win, followed by Governor Malibu and American Freedom.
Make legal online horse racing wagers in the US at BetAmerica.com
