The 147th running of the Travers Stakes at Saratoga shaped up to be a jockey’s race. Early position and pace would dictate who had a shot to share in the $1.25 million purse. A dry track dampened the chances of morning line favorite Exaggerator, while the monumental performance of 10-1 shot Arrogate dampened the chances of everyone else as Arrogate ran the fastest time in the history of the Travers Stakes.
Arrogate, ridden by Mike Smith, broke alertly from the #1 post and gained the lead along the rail midway around the first turn. Following Arrogate’s blistering fractions of 23.23 and 46.84, fellow Bob Baffert trainee American Freedom sat just outside the leader’s flank for the next half mile until Arrogate decided to run away and into the history books. The final time in the 1-1/4 mile test was 1:59.36, a new Travers record and a new Saratoga record.
In my Travers preview I got everything right for the first ¾’s of a mile. Arrogate, breaking from post #1, and American Freedom to his outside would set the pace, not Jim Dandy winner Laoban. Closers Exaggerator and Creator would not be a factor. I noted an overwhelming track bias at Saratoga where the #1 post was winning these routes at a 24% clip and that early speed/stalkers were winning at an astonishing 76%. “You needed to be inside and up close.” I should have stopped there.
Arrogate was never challenged in the stretch as his lead increased with every stride. The rest of the field seemed to run in place as positions remained generally unchanged for the final 3/8’s of a mile with American Freedom holding 2nd and Gun Runner maintaining 3rd. Arrogate paid $25.40, $12.60 & $8.40, American Freedom returned $6.70 and $4.60, and Gun Runner’s show price was $6.80.
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It’s hard to imagine that Arrogate would have been able to cut such blazing fractions and still draw out on such a classy field to win by more than a dozen lengths. The fact that a horse who has never run in more than a $62,500 optional claiming race can run the fastest G1 Travers in 147 tries, and the fastest 1-1/4 mile race in Saratoga history, really shows the power of a track bias.
The way that this late blooming optional claiming horse moved up to dominate some of the year’s top 3-yr olds is also a testament to the mediocrity of this year’s 3-yr old crop. Every big race is won by a different name that jumps into the mix for horse of the year honors. Nobody has been able to separate from the field.
So where does the outcome of Saturday’s Travers leave the rest of the best who finished up the track at The Spa? Destin seemed perfectly placed behind the hot pace and never fired. Exaggerator never found his footing. Creator never threatened. Laoban couldn’t follow up his Jim Dandy performance. None of them had an excuse better than that they were beaten by a better horse who ran a great race into a perfectly suited track bias.
I may now change my opinion and hope that the top 3-yr old filly Songbird takes on the boys at the Breeder’s Cup. She will have 2017 and beyond to develop her rivalry with older mare Beholder.
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