The $6,000,000 Breeder’s Cup Classic will be run Saturday afternoon at Santa Anita. The 10 horse field will cover the classic distance of 1-1/4 miles over a two-turn dirt course. With California Chrome, Arrogate and Frosted headlining the field, horse of the year honors will be at stake.
The dirt course at Santa Anita has been running with a substantial bias on the front end that will have a major impact on this race. All races of 1 mile and upward at Santa Anita are run around two turns and according to the Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances, there have been 40 of these races run and 48% have been won by early speed and 33% more have been won by stalker types. The winners’ average number of lengths behind the leader at both the first and second calls is about 1 length. The inside part of the track also looks like it has been the best place to run.
While I am going to evaluate each horse with the recent bias as a factor, I will be watching the races on Friday and Saturday to re-evaluate the track. Even if the course stays dry, racetracks occasionally compensate for a bias when approaching big races. (Like when the rail miraculously became good at Del Mar leading up to the Pacific Classic). If there is any change leading up to the big day, I will tweet about it @MikeMcTrader.
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This current bias information is so strong I am forced to discount several contenders solely based on their late running preferences.
War Story doesn’t seem to fit in the Classic. He wired an allowance field for his only win of the year but he is considered a deep closer just because he is always far back when unsuccessfully trying to chase graded stakes company. Pass.
Keen Ice has not won a race since the 2015 Travers and has not posted a triple digit Brisnet speed figure this year. This closer finished 3rd in an optional claiming race tightener on October 7th. Pass.
Win the Space has been chasing California Chrome all over southern California and while he shows some talent, he might be better suited to the softer spots back east. Pass.
Here’s how I see the race shaping up: Arrogate will be breaking from the outside post and will need to use his speed to cross in front of the field in the long run to the first turn. California Chrome will start from post #4 and will settle right behind the leader. Nobody wants to battle with Arrogate but they also can’t let him get away too easily.
Was Arrogate’s record setting run in the Travers a fluke? Arrogate was aided by a substantial inside and upfront bias at Saratoga, but his performance was still other-worldly. However, his speed figure at the Travers was such a jump from his prior figures that I don’t see him repeating it. Arrogate will still go for the lead and California Chrome is going to need to respect him and stay up close. Chrome is the only horse capable of keeping up if Arrogate fires out.
Melatonin will attempt to keep up but this front runner is just not fast enough. His consistent speed figures have been aided by brutally slow early fractions that just don’t compare to the likes of Chrome and Arrogate. Effinex will also try and be close but his losing effort in the soft Jockey Club Gold Cup tells me he won’t be able to go with them. In that race Effinex had no excuse when he couldn’t get loose in a very slow race and was outclosed by Hoppertunity. Effinex looked like a tired horse.
Bob Baffert’s Hoppertunity was well placed in that Belmont event. His speed figure was respectable, he closed to soft fractions, and he beat the 1.25-1 shot Effinex.. In fact, this mid-pack closer has sat behind a very slow pace in his last three races, finally breaking through for that win at Belmont.
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And then there is Frosted. This Kiaran McLaughlin trainee broke 6th before dominating the Met Mile, wired the field to win the Whitney, and just missed after trouble at the start in the Woodward. And let’s not forget that this troubled start forced Frosted to battle the substantial front end bias at Saratoga. Frosted looks best suited to stalk the pacesetters and his speed figures show he has the ability to run on in the lane and improve off of that Woodward run.
On the backside I see Arrogate and Chrome up front, Melatonin and Effinex starting to fade, while Frosted keeps on to track the top duo. Hoppertunity will start his move nearing the far turn and then the race to the wire will begin. Arrogate had an another gear in the Travers but that is the first time he has shown it. Chrome’s final quarter mile time in the Awesome Again was mediocre but jockey Victor Espinoza never even gave hand urging. Frosted’s troubled early going in the Woodward forced him to fight the bias at Saratoga and can improve off of that effort.
At the wire, my order of finish is…
1. California Chrome
2. Frosted
3. Hoppertunity
4. Arrogate
If you have been following along you know I hate to bet the favorite but California Chrome is the best horse in the world and I can’t advise anyone to fade him. The horse of the year voting will mimic my exacta with Chrome on top of Frosted.
We’ll be back to try and beat the favorite again next week.
