Saturday’s G1 Hollywood Derby will feature a full field of 12 three year olds and will be run at 1-1/8 miles over Del Mar’s turf course. The field includes graded stake veteran invaders from the east and Midwest, but with only a single grade 1 victory by Beach Patrol in Arlington Park’s Secretariat Stakes. The rest of the contenders will be looking to add a grade 1 score before the year closes on their 3-year-old resumes.
According to my trusted Brisnet stats, route races over the turf course at Del Mar have been favoring deep closers since November 11th with only 18% wire to wire winners. The 2 most recent races at the 1-1/8 mile distance were won by horses coming from an average of almost 8 lengths back in the final half mile. Will there be a decent pace in this affair to isolate our focus on the closers?
Get a $100 sign up bonus at twinspires.com
The first horse that caught my eye in the search for speed was the Richard Baltas trainee Free Rose. The only thing missing in this gelding’s rags to riches story is a grade 1 victory. After breaking his maiden in a $40,000 claiming affair, Free Rose finished next to last in his subsequent 3 outings, including a 20-length loss in a $20,000 claiming non-winners of 2 race at Keeneland. That’s when Free Rose discovered the turf and he hasn’t finished out of the money since, including a G2 and G3 win.
Going out early with Free Rose will be another graded stakes veteran Blackjackcat. These two hooked up in a monumental grade 2 duel at Santa Anita in the Twilight Derby, circling the oval in tandem only to have Frank Conversation come from 5 wide and 5 lengths back to scoop up the pieces at 37-1 odds. I can’t imagine that Norberto Arroyo on Free Rose and Mike Smith on Blackjackcat will commit to a suicidal speed dual again, but neither horse has shown the ability to win from anywhere off the pace. Blackjackcat’s trainer, Mark Glatt, will be taking the blinkers off of his gelding hoping to harness some of that speed, but let’s also note that Glatt is 0 for 22 in graded stakes affairs.
With the speedball tendencies of these two being so apparent, I don’t see anybody else willing to sacrifice himself battling them for the lead. Conclusion: I believe that the pace will be modest, and without the anticipated speed duel the deep closers will be in trouble. Free Rose has a win over the Del Mar grass in the G2 Del Mar Derby and, as fast as he went in the Twilight, the race could be viewed as a tightener after a 2 month layoff. The fractions in the Twilight were so fast that if Free Rose settles along even a little bit this week, he can improve, but will it be enough to overcome a competitive field and a track that favors closers?
Get a $100 sign up bonus at twinspires.com
I think that Free Rose will take another step forward and have enough to hold off the closers. The only question will be the price. Free Rose and Blackjackcat will surely be played, as will 2 of Chad Brown’s 3 entrants, G1 winner Beach Patrol and multiple graded stake winner Camelot Kitten. With so many playable entrants I think our post time favorite will be no worse than 3-1. The bottom line is Free Rose for the win.
